Tesla Model Y SUV orders open in Australia, New Zealand and Singapore
Right hand drive Tesla fans are rejoicing, with the US automaker opening the online order books in key markets Australia, Singapore, New Zealand and Japan.
Tesla’s Model Y is finally reaching RHD markets in 2022. Images: Tesla Motors
Updated 18/6/22: Tesla has already increased prices for its Model Y range in both Australia and Japan, barely one week after the order books opened. This coincides with increases in North America, Germany and several other countries. Other right hand drive markets like New Zealand and Singapore are unaffected.
The day many in the Asia Pacific region have been waiting impatiently for has arrived, with Tesla opening the online order books for its compact crossover, the Model Y. Customers in Australia, Singapore, New Zealand and Japan were able to access the order page from yesterday, with delivery dates set for later in 2022.
Tesla Model Y Pricing:
Australia
Model Y RWD - AUD$72,300 (previously $68,900)
Model Y Dual-Motor Performance - $101,612 (previously $98,689)
Singapore
Model Y RWD - SGD$91,990
Model Y Dual-Motor Performance $110,990
New Zealand
Model Y RWD - NZD$76,200
Model Y Dual-Motor Performance - $108,900
Japan
Model Y RWD - ¥6,438,000 (previously ¥6,190,000)
Model Y Dual-Motor Performance - ¥8,333,000 (previously ¥8,090,000)
Tesla’s Australian order page is now quoting a November 2022-February 2023 delivery window.
Tesla Model Y order wait times
Despite promising signs that Australian buyers might face shorter queues than other high-demand battery electric models, the Tesla Australia order page is now quoting an estimated delivery timeframe of November 2022-February 2023 at the time of writing. On Friday it was August to November 2022.
Tesla halted production at its Shanghai Gigafactory in May due to a resurgent COVID-19 virus, affecting Chinese and global vehicle deliveries. It’s now full steam ahead however, and the factory aims to surpass 70,000 units of production in June, according to to an internal production memo obtained by Reuters.
We took our first look at the car which you can see below:
Tesla also made sure vehicles were available on Friday in Australian showrooms, with many EV fans on Twitter sharing images of their first Model Y in-person sightings:
The Model Y features an identical interior design to the Model 3.
The Model Y shares many similarities with Tesla’s popular Model 3 sedan, but offers a higher roof height with higher seating position, and a greater amount of storage space. The rear wheel drive model offers a 455km WLTP range, and a 0-100 km/h time of 6.9 seconds. The dual-motor performance variant features 514km of WLTP range, and a blistering 3.7 second 0-100km/h time. Five colours are available, and at launch at least, the long range variant is unavailable in the aforementioned markets, as is the seven seat option. Explore and configure your own Model Y with the Tesla configurator here.
By now it is obvious; the Model 3 has quickly become the number one selling battery electric vehicle in many markets around the world, thanks to its perfect combination of technology, range, practicality and Tesla’s excellent Supercharger network. SUVs are big drivers of sales and profit for many automakers, and its clear the Model Y will be a hit with right hand drive customers.
Tesla posts record net income, revenue up 73%, record net profit of $438 million
Tesla has had a stellar first quarter of 2021, beating earnings expectations from Wall Street analysts. The automaker posted US$10.389 billion in revenue, up 73 percent YoY from $5.985 billion in Q1 2020, and just behind the figure of $10.744 billion for Q4 2020 as well as non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.93.
Tesla’s Model X and Model S are set for a refresh in 2021. Image: Tesla Motors
Tesla has had a stellar first quarter of 2021, beating earnings expectations from Wall Street analysts. The automaker posted US$10.389 billion in revenue, up 73 percent YoY from $5.985 billion in Q1 2020, and just behind the figure of $10.744 billion for Q4 2020, and the company also announced non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.93.
GAAP earnings are used to standardise financial reporting of large, publicly-traded companies, and non-GAAP earnings constitute items like large asset write-downs, one-time transactions or company restructuring costs.
Tesla reported record net profit of $438 million for the seasonally slow quarter (GAAP), as well as sales of regulatory credits to the tune of $518 million. Operating income came in at $594 million, resulting in a 5.7% net operating profit.
According to the company, quarter-end cash and cash equivalents decreased to $17.1B—still a huge pile of cash—in Q1, “driven mainly by a net cash outflow of $1.2B in cryptocurrency (Bitcoin) purchases, net debt and finance lease repayments of $1.2B, partially offset by free cash flow of $293M.”
Tesla has been growing its vehicle sales to the tune of 100% YoY, and according to Elon Musk, the Model Y SUV is likely to become the best selling vehicle on the planet within the next few years. Tesla investor David Lee has some interesting figures should the automaker manage to achieve 500,000 deliveries a quarter, demonstrating that this could potentially net Tesla $22.5 billion in revenue, and $5.6 billion in gross profit.
Tesla will obviously have a lot of expenses over the next few years; the completion of Gigafactories in Berlin and Texas, scaling up production of its new 4680 cells to deal with the incredible demand for batteries and rolling out more Supercharging sites, service and sales centers and mobile technicians to name a few. We have full confidence in Tesla; partly due to its year over year profit and increasing sales volume, but also due to the untapped potential of its energy business.
Tesla has the ability to make Tesla Energy almost as big as its automotive business in our view. The company deployed 92 MW of solar in Q1, up 163% from 35 MW in Q1 2020. It also deployed 445 mWh of energy storage, up 71% from 260 mWh in Q1 2020.
Tesla’s financial summary for Q1 2021. Source: Tesla
Tesla’s operational summary for Q1 2021.
Source: Tesla Motors
Tesla posts record Q1 production and delivery results, almost exclusively from Model 3 and Model Y
In the first quarter of 2021, Tesla produced 180,338 vehicles and delivered 184,800 vehicles. That’s a record for what is traditionally a quiet quarter, and represents a 76 percent increase from 102,672 vehicles, and a nine percent increase from 88,400 vehicles produced and delivered respectively in the first quarter of 2020.
In the first quarter of 2021, Tesla produced 180,338 vehicles and delivered 184,800 vehicles. That’s a record for what is traditionally a quiet quarter, and represents a 76 percent increase from 102,672 vehicles, and a nine percent increase from 88,400 vehicles produced and delivered respectively in the first quarter of 2020.
These results also eclipsed the fourth quarter of 2020—traditionally a strong quarter—where Tesla produced 179,757 vehicles and delivered 180,570 vehicles.
Looking at the numbers above, the Model S and X contributed just over one percent of deliveries to Tesla’s Q1 2021 results, due to the fact that production ceased late last year as production lines are set up and retooled for the refreshed Model S and Model X Long Range, Plaid and Plaid+ due to launch this year. in the fourth quarter of 2020, Model S and Model X sales comprised approximately 10% of total vehicles produced and delivered. Years ago, critics mocked Elon Musk when he stated that Model S and Model X sales are “not all that important” in the long term.
Tesla’s Semi, likely to be introduced in 2022. Image: Tesla Motors
Despite strong forward demand for the revised Model S and Model X ranges, it’s now clear that Musk’s plan is coming to fruition; the more affordable Tesla Models are indeed contributing to the bulk of production and delivery numbers. China’s Gigafactory has been ramping up production over the last few months, and strong demand for Model Y in both China and in North America has clearly been a winner for Tesla.
With the installation of the Gigapress die-casting machines in Tesla’s factories, the company is able to realise even greater efficiencies in production, and maintain production to meet demand. 2021 will be an interesting year for Tesla; there’s the refresh of the Model S and X which will increase premium category sales and boost profitability, Both the Texas and Berlin Gigafactories are set to come online, Shanghai is expanding, and there is talk internally at Tesla that one million vehicles produced and delivered might be achievable.
Source: Tesla Motors
Top 5 Battery Electric Vehicles to Look Forward to in 2021
For fans of the premium German automotive establishment, it would be hard to go past a svelte 4-door EV from Ingolstadt. Audi plays it safe with a traditional long hood, wide grille and aggressive vent design — one doesn’t want too many people to know one is driving an electric vehicle — but I’ll forgive these design features that serve very little practical function on an EV because of the wide hips, high-door line/low roof line and beautifully shaped rear.
It was difficult to narrow this list down to five vehicles; we would have liked to include many other makes in this list but have restricted it to our favourite vehicles that have a high probability of hitting the market in 2021. It’s going to be an exciting year for Electric Vehicles, with Tesla looking to move into the Indian Market, Volkswagen ramping up its ID.3 and ID.4 production, NIO entering the year with good cashflow and healthy sales, worldwide release of luxury models from Chinese automakers BYD and Xpeng, and more.
Here's the top 5 battery electric vehicles to look forward to in 2021:
5. Tesla Model Y
Tesla’s Model Y is a common sight on US roads, but its international launch in 2021 is expected to drive big profits for Tesla.
Image: Tesla Motors
Tesla’s styling isn’t exactly scintilating, but it does age well, and is more a victim of its popularity than anything else. The Model Y has been on sale in the US since March 2020, and has proven popular with US consumers. It just hit the market in China as production began at Gigafactory Shanghai in December, and Tesla stores across the country have seen long lines to experience the vehicle.
The Model Y takes the Model 3’s formula, and elevates it — quite literally — to a new level. Consumer preferences have shifted toward SUVs, and globally sales of the jacked up vehicles make up over 50 per cent of the passenger car market.
It’s easy to see why the Model Y has been such a sales success; it’s $45,000 USD base price gives you a car with 483km (300mi) range, Tesla’s brilliant autopilot system, regular over the air updates, all the tech and gadgets consumers love from the brand, and the best fast charging network in the world.
The Model Y is sure to continue its sales success, as Europe, Australia and India await its introduction in 2021.
4. Audi E-Tron GT, E-Tron GT RS
Audi’s E-Tron GT is one svelte looking low-slung EV.
Image: Audi AG
For fans of the premium German automotive establishment, it would be hard to go past a svelte 4-door EV from Ingolstadt. Audi plays it safe with a traditional long hood, wide grille and aggressive vent design — one doesn’t want too many people to know one is driving an electric vehicle — but I’ll forgive these design features that serve very little practical function on an EV because of the wide hips, high-door line/low roof line and beautifully shaped rear.
The E-Tron and E-Tron RS are based on Porsche’s Taycan, but it’s expected that Audi will heavily re-engineer the platform for its own models, and that the Renn Sport version will have even more power than Porsche’s Taycan Turbo S. Audi’s press department promises up to 434 kW (590 hp) and a 0-100kmh (0-62mph) of 3.5 seconds, and an interior familiar to Audi owners, but dressed in sustainable materials and vegan ‘leather’.
The Volkswagen Audi Group is now quite experienced at producing EVs, with a number of popular models on sale. I am confident that the development of the E-Tron will be smooth for Audi, and that it will enter the market in late 2021, pending any (futher) catastrophic global events for the company or the world.
3. Rivian R1T, R1S
Rivian’s R1T promises a no-compromise adventure-focused EV.
Image: Andy Hedrick
Surely Rivian is just another automaker startup with big dreams and impossible odds? Many back Rivian as the next Tesla in the marketplace for good reason; Chief Executive RJ Scaringe is an engineer who completed his training at MIT’s prestigious Sloan Automotive Lab, and plans for Rivian to design and build everything in house.
Rivian has received close to $3 billion in funding from the likes of Saudi-backed JIMCO, Cox Automotive, Ford and Amazon, and It’s R1T Pickup and R1S SUV plan to beat Tesla to the line of the popular — and profitable — global SUV and pickup truck market.
With in-house designed battery, platform, thermal system, drivetrain and software, Rivian will likely hold a similar competitive advantage to Tesla against manufacturers who simply outsource component design to third parties. Rivian is planning a range of battery sizes from 105kWh to a massive 180kWh, and up to 680km (400mi) range, but has yet to provide any range figures for a vehicle towing a large load. When you get to your remote campsite in a national park, how do you charge up? The company plans a high-speed charging network at popular camping, hiking and kayaking sites in parks around the US.
The R1T and R1S are handsome vehicles, and are sure to attract the EV buyer who finds Tesla’s Cybertruck a little ostentatious. The Launch Editions of the R1T and R1S start at $75,000 and $77,500 USD respectively, and include a 300mi range, quad-motor setup, a 5 ton (11,000lbs) towing capacity, the offroad package, 4x 110V and 3x12V outlets, and options that including a full camp kitchen that slides out of the side of the vehicle.
2. Lucid Air
The Lucid Air in its top specification produces 1,080 hp from a 113kWh battery.
Image: Lucid Motors
Sure, the Audi E-Tron GT, Tesla Model S or Porsche Taycan will appeal to those who appreciate a tech-focused performance EV from an established name, but none can compete with the futuristic beauty of the Lucid Air. Designed by Derek Jenkins, formerly of Mazda, Volkswagen USA and Audi USA, the design language of the Air isn’t restrained by a family heritage or recognisable face that must be continued; it is fresh, premium and futuristic.
Lucid claims the most aerodynamic sedan on the market, with a drag coefficient of 0.22cd. The Air features a 34 inch 5k display cluster, up to 895kW (1,080hp) of.power in the Dream Edition, and Lucid DreamDrive, the company's autonomous driving system that utilises LiDAR, radar, ultrasonic sensors and multiple cameras.
Lucid signed a battery deal with Samsung in 2016, and in 2018 received $1 billion in funding for its new Californian factory from a Saudi Arabian investment fund, and is expected to begin deliveries of its Air Dream Edition mid-2021.
Rivian/Amazon Delivery Van
Amazon’s custom delivery van, developed and built by Rivian.
Image: Rivian
The only commercial vehicle on this list, and it takes top spot? Let us explain. The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the way we live and work, and its likely the majority of workers in the service sector/office environments will at least have the option to work from home even with the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. With massive demand on postal and delivery services as consumers favour online shopping, It will be critical to minimise diesel particulates and emissions in our communities, and for transport companies to reduce fuel and maintenance costs. Amazon has already ordered 100,000 vans, in a bid to significantly reduce their carbon footprint by 2030.
Although specification details are limited at this stage, it’s expected that production of the bespoke delivery van will begin in late-2021 at Rivian’s Normal, Illinois factory. Reports in the press suggest the van may be based on a version of the ‘skateboard’ electric platform from the R1S/R1T, with a stretched wheelbase. Amazon has reported that the vehicle will feature Alexa voice control to assist drivers, as well AI controlled delivery routes to optimise efficiency and speed. While there are other exciting commercial EVs coming to market from companies like Arrival, Morris Commercial, Volvo and Daimler Trucks, Rivian’s promise is seen in the vote of confidence from Amazon, and the seed funding the company has received.
Tesla Closes 2020 with a Record Q4 and 500,000 Vehicles Delivered
Tesla delivered 499,500 vehicles for the 2020 calendar year, and produced 509,737 vehicles. That’s almost 10x the production output from 2015. Many Wall Street analysts dismissed Tesla’s 500,000 unit goal for the year, as the onset of COVID-19 impacted the automaker’s production facilities around the globe…
Freemont Outbound Delivery Lot - Image: Tesla
Tesla delivered 499,500 vehicles for the 2020 calendar year, and produced 509,737 vehicles. That’s almost 10x the production output from 2015. Many Wall Street analysts dismissed Tesla’s 500,000 unit goal for the year, as the onset of COVID-19 impacted the automaker’s production facilities around the globe, and negatively affected sales across the broader passenger car market.
Image: Tesla
Five years ago, the company’s CEO Elon Musk emphasised a plan to reach a delivery target of 500,000 vehicles per year by 2020. At the time, this number seemed overly ambitious, as production difficulties, cashflow troubles and quality concerns seemed to be the most interesting stories to the media.
After a string of profitable quarters, successful launch of the Model Y and massive capital expansion, 2020 culminated in Tesla’s listing on the S&P 500 index, and a massive push to increase production by year end.
Tesla produced 179,757 vehicles and delivered 180,570 vehicles in Q4, up 42 per cent and 36 per cent respectively on Q4 2019 numbers. In Q3 2020, Tesla produced 145,036 vehicles and delivered 139,300 vehicles.
Elon Musk took to Twitter to mention the thousands of employees who contribute to Tesla’s continued success:
Investors and the majority of analysts have been very bullish on Tesla at the end of 2020, and the stock has surged past $705 US per share as at market close on December 31. Despite this, The New York Times, amongst other media outlets still falls into the trap of labelling Tesla as an “upstart automaker [that] will probably face stiffer competition in 2021.”
While its true Tesla has ongoing customer service and quality issues to address, and a huge amount of work ahead to continue to scale to meet future production and delivery targets, it’s dangerous to not see Tesla for what it now is; an energy company with the best automotive software on the market, and likely the best electric vehicles available today.
We can expect the full Q4 and calendar year 2020 earnings to be reported in late January or early February.
Tesla Launches Model Y in China with MY2021 Upgrades and Sharp Pricing
Tesla Model Y orders are now open in the Tesla China Design Studio, priced from 488,000 yuan ($68,500 USD) for the Model Y Long Range, and 535,000 yuan ($75,200 USD) for the Model Y Performance.
Tesla Model Y orders are now open in the Tesla China Design Studio, priced from 488,000 yuan ($68,500 USD) for the Model Y Long Range, and 535,000 yuan ($75,200 USD) for the Model Y Performance.
According to Tesmanian, sources within Tesla China indicate over 100,000 orders were received upon release of the pricing information, and the company had to post an update on an update on Weibo stating the following:
"CURRENTLY, THERE ARE TOO MANY ORDERS ON THE OFFICIAL WEBSITE AND MAY NOT BE REFRESHED. PLEASE BE PATIENT."
While cheaper than expected, The Model Y’s main competitor is expected to be the NIO ES6, which starts from 358,000 yuan in China. The Model Y has also received some updates for the 2021 model year, including the revised centre console also seen on US-made Model 3s, new wood trim on the doors and an integrated wireless phone charger.
There’s currently no update regarding Australian pricing or delivery information for the Model Y, but as the China rollout — and the Model 3 Australian rollout — has demonstrated, Tesla often waits until the last minute to open the online design studio for the newest vehicles.
Tesla End of Year Wrap Up
The electric vehicle market is booming, despite COVID-19 putting the brakes on the auto industry generally. Of course Tesla has become a darling of investors, with the company seeing a 50% share price increase since the announcement in early November that the automaker was entering the S&P 500.
The electric vehicle market is booming, despite COVID-19 putting the brakes on the auto industry generally. Of course Tesla has become a darling of investors, with the company seeing a 50% share price increase since the announcement in early November that the automaker was entering the S&P 500. Not since Yahoo and the dot com boom in the late nineties have we seen such confidence in the future of a company.
Tesla isn’t one to slow down for the holiday season, and with a final production and deliveries push expected, Gigafactories across the world under construction, charging infrastructure and vehicle updates, we look at the news this week, and what we can expect to see in the new year.
Sales & Deliveries
North American and European sales of Model 3 and Y remain strong, and the company has apparently met (admittedly low) Model S and X targets for the year, and has halted production for these vehicles.
Tesla sales are strong in China, and this is the market that will help push Tesla to its 500,000 unit goal in 2020. Indeed, many analysts and commentators believe Tesla will surpass this target. With over 20,000 ‘made in China’ Model 3s sold in November, that demand looks set to continue through December, just as the Model 3 was recently awarded Number 1 electric vehicle in China by owners in a recent Net Promoter Score (NPS) index survey. Any concerns around battery availability have subsided, as Tesla’s Chinese production recently moved to lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries from supplier CATL.
In Q4 2019, Tesla delivered 112,000 vehicles. Tesla has been ramping production in Q3 and Q4, and Rob Maurer of Tesla Daily has projected just over 24,000 units of Model 3 in production from Giga Shanghai in December. His other projections include:
53,000 Model Y units produced in Q4;
58,000 Model 3 units produced in Q4;
19,000 Model S and X units produced in Q4;
530,000 total units produced in 2020
Tesla needs 181,000 deliveries worldwide to achieve the 500,000 unit annual target. Watch Tesla Daily’s Q4 prediction video below:
Factories
As was expected, construction of Giga Texas is powering forward, with the skeleton and roof of the facility already under construction, and the first phase of the project due for completion in 2021.
Over in China, Tesla completed the Model 3 and Model Y production lines in record time, and new single-piece body castings have been spotted at the factory, suggesting Tesla’s new ‘Gigapress’ casting machines are now online.
Tesla certainly isn’t resting though, and it appears the company is continuing to expand the production facility east of the current footprint:
Meanwhile, over in Germany, Giga Berlin is also charging full steam ahead, with ‘Gigapress’ casting machines arriving at the factory, and external walls being erected, despite a number of hold ups due to permits, environmental concerns and missed payments. Again, Tesla is expected to commence operations on time if not earlier, with production tests due for July 2021, some 13 months after construction on the site began.
FSD pricing and updates
Tesla’s autonomous Full Self Driving package is set to become a cash cow for the company, with the billions in R&D dollars spent set to be recouped over the next few years. Previously available as a stand-alone option before or after delivery for a cost of $10,000, Tesla announced 2021 will bring a subscription pricing model for owners who wish to pay for the option in instalments.
Tesla has also just released its holiday 2020 update, as part of Firmware 2020.48.25. There are some notable changes mentioned in the release notes including:
“The driving visualization has been refreshed and now offers a larger visualization to allow drivers to view more details of the road surroundings. The next turn will now appear above the visualization if the navigation turn list is covered by another app.”
“Schedule departure can now precondition your battery and cabin even when your car is unplugged. To account for different utility rate plans, you can now set the time when your off-peak rates end to save on charging costs. To access, tap SCHEDULE from the climate control or charging panel when parked.”
“Supercharger pins on your touchscreen will now display the number of available stalls at charging sites. Quickly search for nearby amenities by tapping an amenity icon on the Supercharger popup display.”
Teslarati has a full rundown of software changes listed here
Superchargers
Can electric vehicles from brands other than Tesla now charge at Tesla Superchargers? Not quite. Marques Brownlee asked Elon Musk on Twitter “Why don't more electric car makers take up Tesla on their offer to use the Supercharging network? Incompatible tech? Hidden fees? Pride? There's gotta be a good reason.” to which Elon Musk replied: “They are, although it’s kind (sic) low-key. Tesla Superchargers are being made accessible to other electric cars.”
Naturally, the internet went crazy, though you won’t see Porsche Taycan owners at a Supercharger any time soon. Tesla is focused on rolling out Superchargers for its customers, installing the high-speed Tesla-only chargers in more locations, and updating more Supercharger sites from 150kW version 2 models to 250kW version 3 models. Construction of Tesla's Supercharger factory in China appears to be ramping up too, and has a 10,000 unit per year production goal.
S&P 500 Inclusion
The big news this week is the inclusion of Tesla into the S&P 500 club; a move that many have signalled since Tesla achieved four straight profitable quarters in July this year. According to the Wall Street Journal, shares have surged some 70% since the announcement of the company’s addition in November.
Tesla’s listing on the stock market benchmark represents the biggest company ever to join the S&P 500, and its USD$650 billion market capitalisation figure means Tesla is the sixth largest publicly listed company in the United States.
1990 to 2020: Largest Companies Added to the S&P 500
Elon Musk appeared extremely grateful on Twitter, Tweeting on December 22 “Thanks to everyone who worked so hard to make Tesla successful. My heart goes out to you.”
Tesla is now the world’s most valuable automaker, with huge growth potential and some serious competitive advantages in the market place (more on that below).
The Street has just named Tesla as its ‘number one stock of the year’, with 12 of 16 panellists agreeing Tesla stood above Zoom Video, Moderna, Amazon and Netflix (numbers two to five respectively)
Image: The Street
What about Tesla Energy?
The growth of Tesla Energy is part of the reason many investors see so much future potential in the company; while solar and household battery growth has been slow over the last few years, Q3 and Q4 2020 were good quarters for the business, and Tesla energy looks to have generated around $1.85 billion in revenue for the 2020 calendar year.
According to The Motley Fool, During Q3 2020, Tesla shipped 759 megawatt-hours (MWh) worth of batteries, an 81% increase from Q2's 419MWh. That’s a higher rate of growth than Tesla’s automotive business, which saw shipments for Q3 at 139,593 units, a sequential increase of 54% over Q2's 90,650 units.
We can expect to see more grid-scale battery projects boosting the energy business in 2021; recently a number of large projects utilising Tesla Powerpack and Megapack technology have been completed, including Yorktown New York’s 490 MW Tesla battery, and an upgrade of an additional 50 MW added to the Hornsdale battery in South Australia. Construction commenced in October on the 182 MW (730MWh) Moss Landing battery in California, which consists of 256 Megapacks, and will be able to power every home in San Francisco for up to six hours according to Tesla.
Tesla Solar has been bubbling away for a few years now, and the company’s energy products have become on average 30% cheaper than the US average primarily due to their online business model. By reducing ‘soft costs’ or non-component costs of each system, customers are able to purchase customised packages that suit their homes, and can even pay off the installed system through a subscription program.
Many in the industry believe that Tesla Energy can generate revenue equal to that of the automotive side of the business, and that it’s just a question of scaling up production, and expanding subscription-based solar and battery systems outside the United States.
What else could possibly happen in 2020?
Well now that you mention it, according to Reuters, there’s a little something called ‘Project Titan’ that the Cupertino tech giant Apple is working on. It’s an electric vehicle that has been in the works since 2014, and part of the secret vehicle’s competitive advantage will apparently be a new battery design that could “radically” reduce the cost of batteries while maximising range.
Gene Munster from Loup Ventures doesn’t see Apple’s entry into personal mobility as a threat to Tesla’s market share; Munster stated that the firm believes traditional automakers are Apple’s target.
Loup Ventures predicts that electric vehicles will account for close to 30% of all auto sales by 2025, with one third of that market to be dominated by Tesla.
Elon Musk dropped quite the Tweet today, stating that during the company’s Model 3 design and engineering phase, he approached Apple to see if Tim Cook was interested in acquiring Tesla: “During the darkest days of the Model 3 program, I reached out to Tim Cook to discuss the possibility of Apple acquiring Tesla (for 1/10 of our current value). He refused to take the meeting.”
How different the automotive and energy landscape could have been…
What’s in store for 2021
So what will next year bring? Like many investors (myself included), Tesla experts see exceptional growth for the company, based on strong demand for electric vehicles generally, and increasing market share in key markets such as China. Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives believes China’s demand dynamic in the EV market will disproportionally benefit Tesla, and that the Chinese market could account for over 40% of Tesla’s sales within eighteen months.
Gali from Hyperchange demonstrates that Tesla has already figured out how to build electric vehicles profitably, with a gross margin figure of 23 percent. He sees a lot more growth potential on a profit per car basis, as the company focuses on software, and begins to recoup costs associated with the research and development of the Full Self Driving software. Gali is projecting a gross profit amount of $2.5 billion for Q4 2020, $2.7 billion in cashflow, and he expects capital expenditure to increase to $4-$6 billion per year from 2021 as Tesla pours more money into factories.
Model Y sales and deliveries are expected to get off the ground early in 2021, and with the Cybertruck Gigafactory due for completion mid-year, 2021 could be the year that Tesla brings the first mass-market electric pickup truck to consumers.
Tesla also unveiled its new 4680 battery cells in September, and the new tabless cells are expected to offer exceptional thermal and electrical efficiency. These cells are expected to be at the core of Cybertruck and Semi performance and efficiency, and while Tesla has these cells currently deployed in prototypes, the company lacks a facility to manufacture them at scale.
One of Tesla’s main goals is terrawatt-hour (TWh), or one trillion watt hour scale battery production, and the company has a manufacturing goal of 3TWh by the year 2030. Elon Musk has also used Twitter to suggest Tesla may be able to manufacture 20 million vehicles a year by this date:
Clean Technica has an excellent article on Tesla’s future that delves deeper into the above, however any future light commercial vehicles from the company are notably absent. With Rivian, Arrival and other manufacturers seeing this segment as a growth market for EVs, I wouldn’t be surprised to find Tesla leveraging their expertise to manufacture delivery vehicles.
2020 has been a difficult year for the automotive industry, but I am cautiously optimistic that Tesla’s battery and vehicle roadmap will play out in their favour, and that we will continue to see the company scale and grow at a rapid rate. Say what you like about Elon Musk; Tesla is now much bigger than one man, and the company has driven the global automotive market rapidly towards electrification and zero emissions transportation.
