Shanghai-built Tesla Model 3 to receive bigger batteries, range bump
Tesla’s entry-level and Long Range Model 3s will receive a bump in battery capacity and range. Price remains unchanged for the Australian market, and delivery dates are estimated to be 8-12 weeks away.
Tesla’s Model 3 (formerly known as “Standard Range Plus”) and Model 3 Long Range are set to receive a boost in battery size and official range estimates, as Tesla confirms the changes via its online configurator.
Eagle-eyed Tesla fans on tff-forum.de noticed that Tesla’s website source code listed a new option code for the battery - BTF1 - replacing the current BTF0 code. The new battery is now confirmed to be a 62.3 kWh (gross) Lithium Iron Phosphate (LiFePO4 or LFP) unit manufactured by CATL. The WLTP combined range figure is now 491 km (305 mi), up from 448 km (278 mi).
While this battery option is currently only available for Shanghai-built cars, it is expected to be rolled out to German-built Model 3s when Gigafactory Berlin comes online.
The Long Range variant hasn’t been forgotten, receiving a 10 percent bump in battery size from 75 kWh to 82 kWh. This means the WLTP range has increased to 614 km (382 mi), up from 580 km (360).
Tesla’s Australian website reflects changes to the Model 3 WLTP range.
The Long Range variant also receives an extended WLTP range according to Tesla’s website.
Both the Tesla Model 3 and Model 3 Long Range have slightly reduced 0-100 km/h times, at 6.1 seconds and 4.4 seconds respectively over the outgoing models. This is likely due to the larger mass of the new battery packs.
Tesla’s Australian website is quoting a delivery time of 8-12 weeks. If that sounds like too long to wait, consider buyers in Canada and the United States, who are currently quoted a delivery time of June 2022 for US-built cars. No changes have been made to the Model 3 Performance, which retains its 80 kWh battery pack and 567 km (352 mi) WLTP range.
This minor changes make the Model 3 even more of a compelling package in Australia, when it comes to range and performance. Hyundai’s IONIQ 5 is available with 451 km (280 mi) WLTP range for $71,900, Kia’s Niro S provides a 455 km (283 mi) WLTP range for $62,590, and the soon to be launched Polestar 2 offers a 440km (273 mi) range for the $59,900 base model and 540 km (336 mi) range for the $64,900 Long Range variant.
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Auto Shanghai 2021: The coolest new models, concepts and more! All the EV news from the show [updated]
After years of declining patronage at international auto shows, it’s nice to see Auto Shanghai 2021 bustling with concept cars, consumers and of course electric vehicles. We’re putting together a full run down of all new and concept electric vehicles that Auto Shanghai 2021 has to offer; check back here as this page is updated!
After years of declining patronage at international auto shows, it’s nice to see Auto Shanghai 2021 bustling with concept cars, consumers and of course electric vehicles. We’re putting together a full run down of all new and concept electric vehicles that Auto Shanghai 2021 has to offer; check back here as this page is updated!
Audi A6 e-tron concept
Chinese buyers love large, luxurious sedans, so what better venue for Audi to unveil its A6 e-tron concept? With similar dimensions to the current A6/A7 models, the e-tron concept is based on the Premium Platform Electric (PPE) modular architecture that also underpins Porsche’s Taycan and the e-tron GT. Set for a 2023 release, the A6 e-tron concept signals a new design direction for Ingolstadt, with complex, angular surfaces out, and an aerodynamic shape with seamless concave and convex surfaces in. It features a drag coefficient of 0.22cd, and Audi claims up to 100 kWh of battery cells, up to 700 km (434 miles) range and 270 kW peak charging speed thanks to its 800V system architecture.
Audi Q4 e-tron, Audi Q4 Sportback e-tron
The new Audi Q4 range is incredibly important for the brand from Ingolstadt in the Chinese context; sales in China were up 5.4 percent in 2020 to 727,358 units (up from 690,083 in 2019), and globally, SUVs account for 66 percent of the brand’s sales. With two body styles, two battery sizes — 52 kWh and 77 kWh — and DC fast charging up to 125 kW, the Q4 is Volkswagen Group’s premium offering on the MEB platform, sitting alongside the cheaper VW ID.4. The Q4 range will be the first Audi model to roll out of SAIC-VW’s joint venture (JV) manufacturing facility in Shanghai, and pricing is expected to start around RMB 420,000 ($64,640 USD).
Baojun KiWi EV
Based on the Baojun E300 from the SAIC-GM-Wuling joint venture, this microcar is the product of a further corporate tie-up with DJI. The drone company appears to be keen to utilise its expertise to develop hardware, sensors and autonomous software for electric vehicles, following years of development. It’s just a concept for now, but we fully expect SAIC-GM-Wuling to leverage DJI’s technology for future BEVs.
BMW i4 M-Sport
Though we still don’t have the full specifications for BMW’s upcoming i4 sport sedan, the company is teasing us with this M-Sport variant that wears tougher looking front and rear bumpers complete with carbon fibre trim. We’re not sold on this look — especially next to some of the fantastic design coming out of Ingolstadt Germany and Namyang South Korea — but we are sold on the 0-62 mph (0-100km/h) time of 4 seconds, 80 kWh battery with 300 miles (482 kilometres) range and the fact this is a sport sedan rather than a hulking SUV. The i4 range is expected to go on sale worldwide in the second half of 2021.
See more of our BMW i4 coverage and full image gallery here
BMW iX
Speaking of hulking SUVs, here’s BMW’s iX. We understand the importance of this car given the success of BMW’s X5 and X7 models, so it’s great to see BMW emphasising the importance of zero emissions drivetrains. The iX will come in xDrive50 and xDrive40 variants, with 370 kW (503 PS) and 240 kW (326 PS) respectively. The iX range will offer up to 249 miles (400 kilometres) of range, and debut BMW’s new technology toolkit, with enhanced connectivity, digital services, and a new generation i-Drive system. Chinese consumers will find Tencent applications built into the BMW iX, as well as a native WeChat functionality. Read more of our iX coverage here.
BYD’s EA1 Hatchback
BYD EA1
BYD’s newest small car debuted at Auto Shanghai, and signals the future direction of the brand’s compact-class city models. Designed by BYD’s Global Design Director Wolfgang Egger, It features some pleasing design details that mimic VW’s ID.3, while retaining a unique Chinese personality. Based upon the company’s e-Platform 3.0, the EA1 won’t be short of cutting-edge technology, with BYD’s signature blade battery and 800 volt architecture available across the model range. BYD plans a ‘hot’ variant, and in exciting news for Australia, BYD and Australian importer Nexport plan to bring the EA1 down under in late 2021.
Cadillac Lyriq (General Motors)
GM has gone all in on battery electric vehicles, and the luxury brand Cadillac has debuted its full-size electric SUV based on the new Ultium platform. This modular design allows for efficient packaging of electronics, batteries and thermal management, and includes new technologies like a wireless battery management system. There are familiar Cadillac styling cues, with the vertical, slim-line headlights and angular design. The Lyric features a full-length glass roof, 23 inch wheels, and a 33 inch (yes, 33) in car LED display. Cadillac will also debut an in-car active noise cancelling system, aiming to reduce wind noise and tyre hum for passengers. Cadillac has stated that Chinese buyers will be able to order the Lyric in late 2021, for deliveries commencing early next year.
Image: Ford China
Ford Evos
Ford has debuted the EVOS at Auto Shanghai, the first model from the blue oval under a new China 2.0 plan and “Progressive Energy in Strength” design philosophy. According to Ford, the company is focused on “electrification and intelligence, customer-centered products and services and upgraded customer experience”. The EVOS features a 1.1m-wide horizontal screen, a virtual personal assistant (similar to NIO’s Nomi) and is based on the all-new Fully Networked Vehicle E/E architecture, which supports dynamic over-the-air software updates. The Ford EVOS will be built by Changan Ford, sold and serviced through the Ford NDSD distribution network across China.
Image: Ford China
Ford Mustang Mach-E
Ford is bringing the Mustang Mach-E to China, and the first domestically built variant — the Mustang Mach-E GT First Edition — is now available to pre-order. Prices will range from RMB 265,000-379,900 ($40,820-$58,520 USD). Ford says owners will have access to over 160,000 fast chargers in more than 340 cities across the country through an exclusive app, as well as access to NIO’s nationwide fast charging network. The Mustang Mach-E GT first edition will be powered by two electric motors making 358 kW (486 PS) and 860 Nm (634 pound-feet) torque. A less expensive entry model will eventually be introduced, but all Mustang Mach-E’s in China will receive the GT front fascia.
The Genesis Electrified G80. Image: Genesis
Genesis Electrified G80
Genesis’s design language has evolved into something quite striking; it’s not pretty but it is elegant, and has loads of presence. Sort of like a futuristic tech-heavy Bentley to our mind. Utilising Hyundai Motor Corporation’s BEV experience and expertise, the Electrified G80 comes with dual motor all-wheel-drive as standard, and 350 kW rapid charging with 427 kilometres WLTP range. Like the Hyundai Ioniq 5 and Kia EV6, 400 - 800 volt electricals are standard, and vehicle-to-load (V2L) is available for customers. Genesis quotes a 0-100 km/h time of 4.9 seconds for the luxe sedan. Expect more details and a North American launch later in 2021.
Hyundai’s Giugiaro inspired Ioniq 5
Hyundai Ioniq 5
We love the look of this car. It’s 8-bit retro-futurism personified, with the Giorgetto Giugiaro inspired headlights and roofline, to the ‘parametric pixel’ design language. Available with 52 kWh and 72 kWh batteries in rear and all wheel drive, Chinese buyers looking for something different should appreciate the road presence of the Ioniq 5 (it’s bigger than a Tesla Model 3) as well as the interior comfort. Thanks to the company’s new E-GMP platform, the Ioniq 5 is able to push the wheels to the corners of the car, and stretch the wheelbase to 3 metres. We were hands on with the Ioniq 5 last week, and can tell you that that wheelbase provides for an incredibly spacious and relaxing interior.
The Mercedes Benz EQB. Image: Mercedes Benz
Mercedes Benz EQB
The Mercedes Benz battery electric vehicle onslaught is here, with the EQB following the recent EQS and EQA launches. Mercedes would like to you think this EQB is based on its all-new Electric Vehicle Architecture (EVA), it’s actually based on the combustion engined GLB, and it shows. Thankfully, it’s dorky looks should mean plenty of interior space, with seven seats available. Battery capacity is up to 66.5 kWh with 100 kW rapid charging, and there are front and all wheel drive options available in Europe and China. Expect the US and Australia to get all wheel drive only variants.
NIO’s ET7 sedan. Image: NIO
NIO ET7
We really hope NIO brings the ET7 to markets outside China. This rather good looking sports sedan will offer battery sizes of 70, 100 and 150 kWh, dual motor all wheel drive, and a system output of 480 kW (652 PS) and 850 Nm (626 lb ft). NIO has commenced body-in-white production this month, and hopes to have customer ready ET7s landing in Q1 2022. As the first sedan in NIO’s line up, the ET7 is an important car, and is expected to compete with Tesla’s refreshed Model S, as well as offerings from BYD, Mercedes-Benz and Audi. the ET7s party piece is its Aquila Super Sensing system with over 33 high-performance sensing units including one ultralong-range high-resolution LiDAR.
Image: Great Wall Motors
ORA Lightning Cat (Great Wall Motors)
ORA is Great Wall Motors’ all-electric brand, and the Lightning Cat is a kooky-but-fun visual mashup of a VW beetle, Porsche 911 and Panamera and Tesla Model 3. With dual motors and all wheel drive, the Lightning Cat can reach 62 mph (100 km/h) in 3.5 seconds according to Great Wall Motors. Oval headlights, two-tone paint and a glasshouse that resemble the Porsche Panamera’s somehow work, and the interior at least looks quite upscale, with a sporty three spoke steering wheel, retro instruments, a suspended centre control area with additional touchscreen, and orange sports seats.
The Seres SF5. Image: Huawei
Seres SF5
Seres’s entry into the BEV market comes in the form of a jointly-developed SUV with tech giant Huawei. The SF5 dual motor variant features 405kW and 820Nm, as well as a 1.5 litre four cylinder engine which acts as a range extender. According to Chinese market information, the SF5 has an electric-only range of 150 kilometres, but the small battery helps keep the cost of the vehicle down; RMB 216,800 in China ($33,370 USD). As you would expect, seamless integration with Huawei’s smart phones is available through the in car entertainment system, and the SF5 features adaptive cruise control and active steering assistance technology as part of its Level 2 autonomous driving system.
Image: Toyota Motor Corporation
Toyota BZ4X
Toyota has finally been dragged into the BEV sphere, announcing the BZ4X SUV as part of a full-scale electrified model roll-out by 2025. The BZ4X is based on the e-TNGA platform co-developed with Subaru, and features Subaru’s all-wheel drive system. Not a huge amount is known about the drivetrain under this model as it is still officially a concept, but the BZ4X is expected to be built in Japan for western markets, and at the Tianjin FAW Toyota Motor Co factory for the Chinese domestic market. Expect a launch date sometime in 2022.
Volkswagen’s China-only ID.6 X and ID.6 Crozz. Image: Volkswagen
Volkswagen ID.6 X, ID.6 Crozz
The ID.6 range is the first all-electric model designed for a specific market, with popular Chinese apps and the ability to check local air quality levels in the infotainment system. Based on the EV-only MEB platform architecture, this 4,876mm long (192 inches) SUV is longer and wider than the US-only Atlas model. 58 and 77 kWh versions will be available, with 430 km (270 miles) and 580 km (365 miles) NEDC range. Rear and all-wheel-drive versions will be available, but pricing isn’t expected to be finalised until later this year. VW’s rivals in this segment include the NIO ES8, Li Xiang One, and Geely’s Xingyue L.
Xpeng’s new P5 sedan. Image: Xpeng
Wuling Hong Guang Mini EV Convertible (SAIC-GM-Wuling)
Errr… What is this? I hear you ask. Bear with us; this is the coolest little convertible going into production at Auto Shanghai. Based on the Hong Guang Mini EV, The Convertible is a chic city car with 120 km (75 miles) of range from a 9.3 kWh battery, or 170 km (106 miles) of range from a 13.9 kWh battery. Top speed is low — as you would expect — peaking at 100 km/h (62 mph). However it seats four, and is guaranteed to be easy to park at 2,917 mm long. The Convertible should be a good seller for Wuling; the hardtop version sold over 40,000 units in March, to be China’s best selling EV. Keep an eye out for it later in the year.
Xpeng P5
We’ve previously covered the Xpeng P5 launch extensively, and as the Chinese NEV luxury sedan market heats up, the P5 will prove to be an important car for the new automaker. Xpeng will likely beat NIO to market with the first production vehicle to feature a LiDAR-based autonomous driving system, and according to the company, the system works in challenging scenarios such as night and low-light conditions, backlighting, and alternating light and dark illumination in tunnels. The P5 should have a range of around 600km (373 miles) on the Chinese NEDC cycle, and full technical details are expected in the coming months, ahead of a late-2021 launch.
Image: Zhijiang Geely Holding Group
Zeekr 001
In a sea of electric SUVs, it’s hard not to get giddy at the sight of something a bit different. Geely’s new Zeekr brand debuts the production version of the Lynk & Co Zero Concept we saw last year. It’s a big, bold shooting-brake-meets-Panamera wagon based on Geely’s Sustainable Experience Architecture (SEA), and we love it. With 400 kW (543 PS) and 700 Nm (516 lb ft), the Zeekr 001 should hit 100 km/h (62 mph) in 3.8 seconds. It’s set for release later in 2021, and let’s hope it makes it outside China.
Tesla posts record Q1 production and delivery results, almost exclusively from Model 3 and Model Y
In the first quarter of 2021, Tesla produced 180,338 vehicles and delivered 184,800 vehicles. That’s a record for what is traditionally a quiet quarter, and represents a 76 percent increase from 102,672 vehicles, and a nine percent increase from 88,400 vehicles produced and delivered respectively in the first quarter of 2020.
In the first quarter of 2021, Tesla produced 180,338 vehicles and delivered 184,800 vehicles. That’s a record for what is traditionally a quiet quarter, and represents a 76 percent increase from 102,672 vehicles, and a nine percent increase from 88,400 vehicles produced and delivered respectively in the first quarter of 2020.
These results also eclipsed the fourth quarter of 2020—traditionally a strong quarter—where Tesla produced 179,757 vehicles and delivered 180,570 vehicles.
Looking at the numbers above, the Model S and X contributed just over one percent of deliveries to Tesla’s Q1 2021 results, due to the fact that production ceased late last year as production lines are set up and retooled for the refreshed Model S and Model X Long Range, Plaid and Plaid+ due to launch this year. in the fourth quarter of 2020, Model S and Model X sales comprised approximately 10% of total vehicles produced and delivered. Years ago, critics mocked Elon Musk when he stated that Model S and Model X sales are “not all that important” in the long term.
Tesla’s Semi, likely to be introduced in 2022. Image: Tesla Motors
Despite strong forward demand for the revised Model S and Model X ranges, it’s now clear that Musk’s plan is coming to fruition; the more affordable Tesla Models are indeed contributing to the bulk of production and delivery numbers. China’s Gigafactory has been ramping up production over the last few months, and strong demand for Model Y in both China and in North America has clearly been a winner for Tesla.
With the installation of the Gigapress die-casting machines in Tesla’s factories, the company is able to realise even greater efficiencies in production, and maintain production to meet demand. 2021 will be an interesting year for Tesla; there’s the refresh of the Model S and X which will increase premium category sales and boost profitability, Both the Texas and Berlin Gigafactories are set to come online, Shanghai is expanding, and there is talk internally at Tesla that one million vehicles produced and delivered might be achievable.
Source: Tesla Motors
Meet SAIC Motors' New Premium Electric Vehicle Brand Zhiji Auto
As electrification drives the convergence of traditional manufacturers and big Tech, SAIC Motors has announced a joint venture with Alibaba Group and Shanghai’s Zhangjiang Group to release electric vehicles under a new brand dubbed “IM”
Zhiji IM sedan launching in 2021
As electrification drives the convergence of traditional manufacturers and big Tech, SAIC Motors has announced a joint venture with Alibaba Group and Shanghai’s Zhangjiang Group to release electric vehicles under a new brand dubbed “IM”, which also signifies “Zhiji Motor” in Mandarin Chinese. “IM” stands for “Intelligence in Motion”, and will join the suite of brands in SAIC Motors’ stable including Roewe Motors, MG, Maxis and SAIC.
The company has yet to release detailed information about the future models under the “IM” brand, but has announced that it is working on a luxury sedan to rival NIO’s new ET7. The “IM” sedan measures 5,000mm long, 1,960mm wide and 1,485mm tall; similar to NIO’s upcoming sedan. Electrive reports that Liu Tao, the co-CEO of Zhiji Automobile, said in an interview with Chinese media that the IM brand was there to “kill” Tesla.
Sources have stated that the sedan will feature energy dense batteries from Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL), autonomous driving capabilities from Nvidia’s drive technology, and based on the released images, roof-mounted Lidar.
There will be 93 kWh or 115 kWh options, which will be available for order in Q2 2021. In 2022, Zhiji Motor will launch a luxury SUV.
With murmurings around a partnership between Apple and Hyundai, this joint venture makes a lot of sense; SAIC will focus on manufacturing — something it obviously excels at as China’s largest automaker — and Alibaba will hold responsibility for AI technology and the data side of vehicles.
More information is expected as April’s Shanghai Auto Show nears;
Source: Gasgoo
Tesla End of Year Wrap Up
The electric vehicle market is booming, despite COVID-19 putting the brakes on the auto industry generally. Of course Tesla has become a darling of investors, with the company seeing a 50% share price increase since the announcement in early November that the automaker was entering the S&P 500.
The electric vehicle market is booming, despite COVID-19 putting the brakes on the auto industry generally. Of course Tesla has become a darling of investors, with the company seeing a 50% share price increase since the announcement in early November that the automaker was entering the S&P 500. Not since Yahoo and the dot com boom in the late nineties have we seen such confidence in the future of a company.
Tesla isn’t one to slow down for the holiday season, and with a final production and deliveries push expected, Gigafactories across the world under construction, charging infrastructure and vehicle updates, we look at the news this week, and what we can expect to see in the new year.
Sales & Deliveries
North American and European sales of Model 3 and Y remain strong, and the company has apparently met (admittedly low) Model S and X targets for the year, and has halted production for these vehicles.
Tesla sales are strong in China, and this is the market that will help push Tesla to its 500,000 unit goal in 2020. Indeed, many analysts and commentators believe Tesla will surpass this target. With over 20,000 ‘made in China’ Model 3s sold in November, that demand looks set to continue through December, just as the Model 3 was recently awarded Number 1 electric vehicle in China by owners in a recent Net Promoter Score (NPS) index survey. Any concerns around battery availability have subsided, as Tesla’s Chinese production recently moved to lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries from supplier CATL.
In Q4 2019, Tesla delivered 112,000 vehicles. Tesla has been ramping production in Q3 and Q4, and Rob Maurer of Tesla Daily has projected just over 24,000 units of Model 3 in production from Giga Shanghai in December. His other projections include:
53,000 Model Y units produced in Q4;
58,000 Model 3 units produced in Q4;
19,000 Model S and X units produced in Q4;
530,000 total units produced in 2020
Tesla needs 181,000 deliveries worldwide to achieve the 500,000 unit annual target. Watch Tesla Daily’s Q4 prediction video below:
Factories
As was expected, construction of Giga Texas is powering forward, with the skeleton and roof of the facility already under construction, and the first phase of the project due for completion in 2021.
Over in China, Tesla completed the Model 3 and Model Y production lines in record time, and new single-piece body castings have been spotted at the factory, suggesting Tesla’s new ‘Gigapress’ casting machines are now online.
Tesla certainly isn’t resting though, and it appears the company is continuing to expand the production facility east of the current footprint:
Meanwhile, over in Germany, Giga Berlin is also charging full steam ahead, with ‘Gigapress’ casting machines arriving at the factory, and external walls being erected, despite a number of hold ups due to permits, environmental concerns and missed payments. Again, Tesla is expected to commence operations on time if not earlier, with production tests due for July 2021, some 13 months after construction on the site began.
FSD pricing and updates
Tesla’s autonomous Full Self Driving package is set to become a cash cow for the company, with the billions in R&D dollars spent set to be recouped over the next few years. Previously available as a stand-alone option before or after delivery for a cost of $10,000, Tesla announced 2021 will bring a subscription pricing model for owners who wish to pay for the option in instalments.
Tesla has also just released its holiday 2020 update, as part of Firmware 2020.48.25. There are some notable changes mentioned in the release notes including:
“The driving visualization has been refreshed and now offers a larger visualization to allow drivers to view more details of the road surroundings. The next turn will now appear above the visualization if the navigation turn list is covered by another app.”
“Schedule departure can now precondition your battery and cabin even when your car is unplugged. To account for different utility rate plans, you can now set the time when your off-peak rates end to save on charging costs. To access, tap SCHEDULE from the climate control or charging panel when parked.”
“Supercharger pins on your touchscreen will now display the number of available stalls at charging sites. Quickly search for nearby amenities by tapping an amenity icon on the Supercharger popup display.”
Teslarati has a full rundown of software changes listed here
Superchargers
Can electric vehicles from brands other than Tesla now charge at Tesla Superchargers? Not quite. Marques Brownlee asked Elon Musk on Twitter “Why don't more electric car makers take up Tesla on their offer to use the Supercharging network? Incompatible tech? Hidden fees? Pride? There's gotta be a good reason.” to which Elon Musk replied: “They are, although it’s kind (sic) low-key. Tesla Superchargers are being made accessible to other electric cars.”
Naturally, the internet went crazy, though you won’t see Porsche Taycan owners at a Supercharger any time soon. Tesla is focused on rolling out Superchargers for its customers, installing the high-speed Tesla-only chargers in more locations, and updating more Supercharger sites from 150kW version 2 models to 250kW version 3 models. Construction of Tesla's Supercharger factory in China appears to be ramping up too, and has a 10,000 unit per year production goal.
S&P 500 Inclusion
The big news this week is the inclusion of Tesla into the S&P 500 club; a move that many have signalled since Tesla achieved four straight profitable quarters in July this year. According to the Wall Street Journal, shares have surged some 70% since the announcement of the company’s addition in November.
Tesla’s listing on the stock market benchmark represents the biggest company ever to join the S&P 500, and its USD$650 billion market capitalisation figure means Tesla is the sixth largest publicly listed company in the United States.
1990 to 2020: Largest Companies Added to the S&P 500
Elon Musk appeared extremely grateful on Twitter, Tweeting on December 22 “Thanks to everyone who worked so hard to make Tesla successful. My heart goes out to you.”
Tesla is now the world’s most valuable automaker, with huge growth potential and some serious competitive advantages in the market place (more on that below).
The Street has just named Tesla as its ‘number one stock of the year’, with 12 of 16 panellists agreeing Tesla stood above Zoom Video, Moderna, Amazon and Netflix (numbers two to five respectively)
Image: The Street
What about Tesla Energy?
The growth of Tesla Energy is part of the reason many investors see so much future potential in the company; while solar and household battery growth has been slow over the last few years, Q3 and Q4 2020 were good quarters for the business, and Tesla energy looks to have generated around $1.85 billion in revenue for the 2020 calendar year.
According to The Motley Fool, During Q3 2020, Tesla shipped 759 megawatt-hours (MWh) worth of batteries, an 81% increase from Q2's 419MWh. That’s a higher rate of growth than Tesla’s automotive business, which saw shipments for Q3 at 139,593 units, a sequential increase of 54% over Q2's 90,650 units.
We can expect to see more grid-scale battery projects boosting the energy business in 2021; recently a number of large projects utilising Tesla Powerpack and Megapack technology have been completed, including Yorktown New York’s 490 MW Tesla battery, and an upgrade of an additional 50 MW added to the Hornsdale battery in South Australia. Construction commenced in October on the 182 MW (730MWh) Moss Landing battery in California, which consists of 256 Megapacks, and will be able to power every home in San Francisco for up to six hours according to Tesla.
Tesla Solar has been bubbling away for a few years now, and the company’s energy products have become on average 30% cheaper than the US average primarily due to their online business model. By reducing ‘soft costs’ or non-component costs of each system, customers are able to purchase customised packages that suit their homes, and can even pay off the installed system through a subscription program.
Many in the industry believe that Tesla Energy can generate revenue equal to that of the automotive side of the business, and that it’s just a question of scaling up production, and expanding subscription-based solar and battery systems outside the United States.
What else could possibly happen in 2020?
Well now that you mention it, according to Reuters, there’s a little something called ‘Project Titan’ that the Cupertino tech giant Apple is working on. It’s an electric vehicle that has been in the works since 2014, and part of the secret vehicle’s competitive advantage will apparently be a new battery design that could “radically” reduce the cost of batteries while maximising range.
Gene Munster from Loup Ventures doesn’t see Apple’s entry into personal mobility as a threat to Tesla’s market share; Munster stated that the firm believes traditional automakers are Apple’s target.
Loup Ventures predicts that electric vehicles will account for close to 30% of all auto sales by 2025, with one third of that market to be dominated by Tesla.
Elon Musk dropped quite the Tweet today, stating that during the company’s Model 3 design and engineering phase, he approached Apple to see if Tim Cook was interested in acquiring Tesla: “During the darkest days of the Model 3 program, I reached out to Tim Cook to discuss the possibility of Apple acquiring Tesla (for 1/10 of our current value). He refused to take the meeting.”
How different the automotive and energy landscape could have been…
What’s in store for 2021
So what will next year bring? Like many investors (myself included), Tesla experts see exceptional growth for the company, based on strong demand for electric vehicles generally, and increasing market share in key markets such as China. Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives believes China’s demand dynamic in the EV market will disproportionally benefit Tesla, and that the Chinese market could account for over 40% of Tesla’s sales within eighteen months.
Gali from Hyperchange demonstrates that Tesla has already figured out how to build electric vehicles profitably, with a gross margin figure of 23 percent. He sees a lot more growth potential on a profit per car basis, as the company focuses on software, and begins to recoup costs associated with the research and development of the Full Self Driving software. Gali is projecting a gross profit amount of $2.5 billion for Q4 2020, $2.7 billion in cashflow, and he expects capital expenditure to increase to $4-$6 billion per year from 2021 as Tesla pours more money into factories.
Model Y sales and deliveries are expected to get off the ground early in 2021, and with the Cybertruck Gigafactory due for completion mid-year, 2021 could be the year that Tesla brings the first mass-market electric pickup truck to consumers.
Tesla also unveiled its new 4680 battery cells in September, and the new tabless cells are expected to offer exceptional thermal and electrical efficiency. These cells are expected to be at the core of Cybertruck and Semi performance and efficiency, and while Tesla has these cells currently deployed in prototypes, the company lacks a facility to manufacture them at scale.
One of Tesla’s main goals is terrawatt-hour (TWh), or one trillion watt hour scale battery production, and the company has a manufacturing goal of 3TWh by the year 2030. Elon Musk has also used Twitter to suggest Tesla may be able to manufacture 20 million vehicles a year by this date:
Clean Technica has an excellent article on Tesla’s future that delves deeper into the above, however any future light commercial vehicles from the company are notably absent. With Rivian, Arrival and other manufacturers seeing this segment as a growth market for EVs, I wouldn’t be surprised to find Tesla leveraging their expertise to manufacture delivery vehicles.
2020 has been a difficult year for the automotive industry, but I am cautiously optimistic that Tesla’s battery and vehicle roadmap will play out in their favour, and that we will continue to see the company scale and grow at a rapid rate. Say what you like about Elon Musk; Tesla is now much bigger than one man, and the company has driven the global automotive market rapidly towards electrification and zero emissions transportation.
